When a new product enters the market and gains steady clientele, marketing executives believe they are on the right track. Many of these customers are called brand evangelists or high-value customers (according to the Pareto principle, 20% of customers account for 80% of a company's revenue). However, this is half true…
According to research, there is another category of consumers who choose to purchase products that are destined to fail. These customers are called "harbingers of failure" or "harbinger customers."
It is estimated that 25% of consumers systematically purchase consumer goods from various categories (e.g., food, beverages, chocolates) that are not expected to survive for more than three years. Moreover, the higher the percentage of harbingers, the more likely it is that the product will fail.
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Some of these products were Crystal Pepsi, Frito-Lay Lemonade, Colgate Kitchen Entrees, Clairol’s Touch Of Yogurt Shampoo, and many others, which were notable failures. In fact, the more frequently they are purchased, the more likely they are to fail.
What is the profile of the harbinger?
Consumers in this category are relatively older, live in rural areas, have low incomes, and usually reside in homes with relatively low value. They purchase products that are on offer, especially when they are new and not targeted to the general public, and which their neighbors have also purchased.
But what is even more interesting is that harbingers usually live in specific areas and have particular tastes, as they buy specialized consumer goods (niche products - the sales of these goods account for only 1% of total sales). They also support “loser” politicians, while buying very few well known clothing items.
Researchers can now predict which consumer products are doomed to fail by studying the purchasing behavior of harbingers.